As he returned from his summer holiday last week, Xi Jinping made a massive splash across the front-page of the Chinese Communist Party’s official People’s Daily newspaper. It was a return to headline-dominating form for the leader — who, since early this summer, has faced speculation internationally that his position in Chinese politics might be slipping.
The occasion was a rare official visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Over two editions of the paper on August 21 and 22, Xi Jinping was everywhere. Walking the red carpet on the airport runway, and presiding over official celebrations held on the Potala Palace Square. Of 10 front-page articles on those two days, just one did not carry Xi’s name in a headline or large subhead.
Since late June, when analysts argued that “citations of Xi’s name have become thinner and thinner in authoritative official media,” and speculation soared that other contenders like Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia (张又侠) could be ascendent, CMP has published regular breakdowns of the headline and image performance for China’s topmost leaders in the People’s Daily. As the “mouthpiece” (喉舌) of the CCP — this being a formal definition of the paper’s status — the People’s Daily plays a crucial part in building and signaling consensus. For this reason, any meaningful shift with regard to “authoritative official media” can be glimpsed in its pages.
So how are the numbers trending as we approach summer’s end?
A Break Does Not a Challenge Make
Before digging in, one observation from this month might be helpful in better understanding how to read headline trends in context.
Over the past two weeks, right in the middle of August, images and headlines mentioning Xi Jinping in the People’s Daily dipped substantially. That is because for a fortnight each August, Xi and other members of the Politburo Standing Committee go off on vacation to the seaside resort of Beidaihe, which since the days of Mao Zedong has been the summer getaway for the Party leadership — a sun-swept refuge for frank exchange within a bubble of secrecy.
Generally, the Beidaihe break results in a gap of headline frequency for the top leader and all others in the PSC. This year was no exception.
The gap also makes an important point about the nature of the People’s Daily and other Party-run outlets when it comes to signaling and the frequency of both leaders’ names and signature concepts — that while there is general consistency in the baseline for names and terms over longer periods of time, they also track with the political schedule. An uptick or burst in the itinerary for given leaders, such as an overseas tour or an important policy-related meeting, will result in observable changes in names and other keywords.
The Beidaihe break is a perfect case of the reverse, a natural lull in the political cycle. Other lulls may occur, and sometimes for reasons that are less obvious from the outside.
In Xi’s Tibet visit and the triumphant coverage that attended it, we can see the rebound in frequency. And this again allows us to observe the primary signaling role of Party media coverage. In most newspapers as we generally understand them, the August 21 front page on Xi’s arrival in Lhasa would merit a single prominent headline (assuming its relevance to readers). In the People’s Daily, however, we can see multiple repeated headlines, all beginning with “Xi Jinping,” and even images that are echoes of one another.
Why must Xi’s name appear five times rather than just once? This is what power signaling looks like in practice.
This amplification — which to many news readers outside China may seem entirely unnecessary, is not applied evenly to all members of the PSC. Had it been Premier Li Qiang (李强) instead who had made this visit to Tibet, we can expect the coverage would have mirrored the relatively understated approach seen when he attended the BRICS summit in Xi’s place earlier this year. At previous BRICS meetings, each and every action by Xi warranted its own front-page article, while Li’s actions at BRICS this year resulted in a single article, halfway down the page.
Headline frequency is significant not just because this or that leader is in the news. It matters also because it can reveal how a particular figure is or is not being amplified.
Now, on to those numbers.
Our headlines count, updated to today, August 29, continues the trend we have observed in previous counts. The longer-term pattern — related to the general consistency we wrote about earlier — is largely unchanged. There is a dip for Xi Jinping compared to 2023, but this is likely explained by the busy schedule of diplomatic events for Xi that year, the tracking with the political schedule discussed above.
The most important point to bear in mind when looking at these totals is that no other figures in the CCP leadership have surged in any way. Their headline counts, even with modest bumps like that Li Qiang experienced last year, resemble dwarfs lined up behind a giant. When we observe the level of fanfare over Xi’s trip to Tibet, the unique amplification he receives is a reminder again of his exceptional and unshaken status within the leadership.
As we have said, there could be merit in observations elsewhere — as in concrete moves within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) — that the Party’s internal balance of power is shifting. But when it comes to power as discernible within authoritative official media, Xi Jinping’s position remains, for the moment, unassailable.
