Author: David Bandurski

Now Executive Director of the China Media Project, leading the project’s research and partnerships, David originally joined the project in Hong Kong in 2004. He is the author of Dragons in Diamond Village (Penguin), a book of reportage about urbanization and social activism in China, and co-editor of Investigative Journalism in China (HKU Press).

Microblogs for Mega Officials?

The following post by Qing Meisu (青媒素) was deleted from Sina Weibo sometime before 5:45 p.m. on November 18, 2012. The post is a response to an as-yet undeleted post by Liu Guijuan (刘桂娟) that read: “I have a dream, hoping that just one among the new group of leaders will open up a Weibo account and see the things that happen everyday in this strong country, see how their subjects pass their days.” Qing Meisu currently more than 101,000 followers, according to numbers from Sina Weibo. [More on deleted posts at the WeiboScope Search, by the Journalism and Media Studies Centre].

Their Weibo accounts would sink. When they spoke everything they said would be sensitive terms and their accounts would be deleted . . .

The original Chinese-language post follows:

他们微博潜水,发言由于全是敏感词被删号了。。


NOTE: All posts to The Anti-Social List are listed as “permission denied” in the Sina Weibo API, which means they were deleted by Weibo managers, not by users themselves.

Gangnam Style with Chinese Characteristics

The following post by Gangsong Samha (港怂萨沙) was deleted from Sina Weibo sometime before 2:57 p.m. on November 17, 2012. The post shares a photoshopped image of Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Xi Jinping and other top Chinese leaders dancing to “Gangnam Style,” the popular dance song by South Korean pop artist PSY. The images of Chinese leaders are carefully managed by propaganda leaders, and the suggestion that they would dance in formation and shake their hips is certainly unwelcome. Gangsong Sasha currently more than 131,000 followers, according to numbers from Sina Weibo. [More on deleted posts at the WeiboScope Search, by the Journalism and Media Studies Centre].

PSY’s Gangnam Style has been really hot lately! Wuppa! [Ha ha] http://t.cn/zlPmUfa


The original Chinese-language post follows:

噢棒子肛门Style 这回真火了,噢吧![哈哈] http://t.cn/zlPmUfa


NOTE: All posts to The Anti-Social List are listed as “permission denied” in the Sina Weibo API, which means they were deleted by Weibo managers, not by users themselves.

Culture and the 18th Party Congress

In “China Stands Still at the Crossroads” (WSJ, November 12), CMP Director Qian Gang shared his thoughts on the issue of political reform as it was reflected in President Hu Jintao’s political report to the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. But what does Hu’s report have to say about culture (including media), which has had a bigger political profile in China ever since the term “cultural soft power” made its debut in the 2007 political report?
Well, there are slight differences from the report five years ago, but nothing fresh or surprising. In fact, the media, culture and “soft power” portions of last week’s political report seem to take their cues from the “Decision” on cultural reforms emerging a year ago from the Sixth Plenary Meeting of the 17th Central Committee. It might be helpful, therefore, for readers to refer back to this post, in which we picked the 2011 document apart.


[ABOVE: Hu Jintao delivers the political report to the 18th National Congress in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.]
In this year’s political report, media and culture are again (as in 2007) characterized as having three fundamental roles: 1. raising the “civilized” conduct and character of the nation generally; 2. contributing to economic growth (culture being a new “pillar” industry); 3. increasing China’s cultural profile internationally, “soft power” now official regarded as a critical component of the country’s comprehensive national strength.
How has China fared on the cultural development front over the past five years? Hu Jintao outlines the Party’s achievements on page 20 of his political report:

一一 A remarkable increase in cultural soft power. The socialist core value system (社会主义核心价值体系) is deeply rooted in the people’s hearts, the civilized character of citizens and the degree of sophistication in society has been raised substantially. Cultural products (文化产品) are more abundant, the system for public cultural services has been basically established, the cultural industry has become a pillar industry for the national economy, there have been greater strides in taking Chinese culture out [into the world], and the foundations are much firmer for [the building of] a strong socialist cultural nation.

The term “strong socialist cultural nation” is a newcomer to this year’s political report. It did not appear Hu Jintao’s 2007 report, but in fact made its debut in the 2011 “Decision” on cultural reform. The phrase encompasses the Party’s ultimate objective on media and culture — a country that is culturally strong and vibrant in a way that serves the Party’s own political objectives.
The basic math: vibrant domestic media and culture + strong soft power resources internationally = STRONG SOCIALIST CULTURAL NATION.
We’ll leave it to you to ask your closest Chinese friends whether the “socialist core value system” (会主义核心价值体系) has indeed deeply rooted itself in their hearts — and how they feel about this mentally or spiritually (medically?). But what exactly is the “socialist core value system”?


[ABOVE: Get your copy of the epic page-turner Socialist Core Value System Study Reader, available through China Culture Web! Or just read our summary and get on with your life.]
The “socialist core value system” first appeared in the 2007 political report. You can think of it as China’s official alternative to any universalist or “Western” notion of core values, necessary because some members of the Chinese Communist Party feel threatened by the perceived encroachment of so-called “Western values” or universal values (a perennial debate inside China).
As I’ve written frequently before, the overarching narrative driving official China’s development of media and culture is one of strategic opposition to the West and to Western values that are being foisted on the world — or so the meta-narrative grumbles — by Western dominance of communication and “global public opinion.”
That’s where the “socialist core value system” comes in. And it probably won’t surprise the reader to learn that this “value system” is steeped in Chinese Communist Party ideology:

Adhering to the socialist core value system demands that we must consolidate and strengthen the guiding position of Marxism, persevering in using the latest theoretical results in the sinicization of Marxism to arm the whole Party and educate the people. [We must] use the common ideals of socialism with Chinese characteristics to create cohesion. [We must] use the national spirit, with patriotism as its core, and the spirit of the age, with innovation as its core. [We must] use the socialist view of honor and shame to define the direction. [We must use all of these to] cement the whole Party and the peoples of various ethnic groups together with a common ideological foundation for unity and struggle.

That’s a lot of language to process. A bit of Marxism. A bit of socialism with Chinese characteristics. But it is essentially cultural nationalism.
The idea is that China has its own “cultural subjectivity” (文化主体性) — something like its own cultural parallel universe — and this subjectivity has to be defended and advanced against Western cultural hegemony. (We’ll just ignore for the moment the curious and inconvenient fact that two Western political theories/worldviews constitute the core of the Chinese Communist Party’s “core value system,” which unravels from the core this particular argument for cultural subjectivity).
Here, the words of Chinese historian Yuan Weishi on the topic of nationalism and culture are apropos:

What exactly is cultural subjectivity? When you leave the core values of a culture or a civilization, there’s no such thing as cultural subjectivity. In an era when the world is moving toward integration, the core values of modern civilization are individual freedom, human rights, protecting the rights and interests of citizens, and the progressive implementation of the rule of law and constitutional governance. These form the basis of our cultural subjectivity in the modern world. To depart from these values when talking about national or cultural subjectivity is to promote isolationism. In a nation that has not yet achieved full modernization, such assertions of cultural subjectivity are a snare by which rulers can deny the rights and benefits of citizens, or a fig leaf with which they can legitimize autocratic rule. Giving credence to such notions would risk dragging China once again onto a dangerous detour. . .
If we talk grandly about subjectivity, regardless of our ultimate designs, in the end we can only be of use to champions of nationalism and we will produce ideological trash.

Or, if you push the commercial imperative while putting culture in a social and political straightjacket, you get what some fussbudgets would call popular trash.
There is thick and poetic irony in the fact that while China’s leaders are pushing a narrow, restrictive, nationalistic and repressive idea of “China’s voice” — in which, for example, some of the finest works by writers like Yan Lianke don’t count, just as Ai Weiwei doesn’t count — the television program currently most popular in the country is “The Voice,” a domestic derivative of a reality singing competition cooked up by a Dutch producer. Or perhaps this is what the political report means on page 37 when it talks about “actively adopting and drawing on excellent cultural fruits overseas”?


[ABOVE: “The Voice of China” is now the country’s most popular television show. Did it take a Dutch producer to discover China’s voice.]
In any case, China’s “soft power” as presently conceived is the international dimension of the policy of cultural nationalism. “Soft power” was first addressed at the most senior Party levels in the 2007 political report, and it therefore makes sense that Hu Jintao should make the claim in this year’s political report that the Party has engineered a “remarkable increase in cultural soft power.”
Soft power is notoriously difficult to quantify — though not impossible, says the father of the concept. It would be interesting to know how Party leaders have made their determination. Some calculus involving Mo Yan and Andrea Yu, perhaps?
Yuan Weishi suggests “cultural subjectivity” is a “snare by which rulers can deny the rights and benefits of citizens.” And in this year’s political report we see cultural rights being denied even as they are affirmed. I hope readers can forgive this longer translation from page 34 of Hu Jintao’s political report, which forms the bulk of the material about culture in the document:

6. Soundly promoting the building of a strong socialist cultural nation
Culture is the circulating blood of the nation, the spiritual home of the people. In order to fully build a well-off society (小康社会), and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, [we] must promote the great development and great prosperity of socialist culture, reaching a new climax in the building of socialist culture, raising our nation’s cultural soft power, bringing into play the role of culture in leading trends, instructing the people, serving society and promoting development
To build a strong socialist cultural nation, [we] must take the cultural development road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, persisting in the direction of serving the people and serving socialism; persisting in the direction of letting a hundred flowers blossom and letting a hundred schools of thought contend; persisting in the principle of closeness to reality, closeness to life and closeness to the masses; promoting the full development of socialist spiritual civilization and material civilization; building a socialist culture that is national, scientific and popular that faces modernization, faces the world and faces the future.
To build a strong socialist cultural nation, the crux is to enhance the creative vitality of all the people. [We] must deepen cultural reforms, releasing and developing cultural productivity, developing academic democracy (学术民主) and artistic democracy (艺术民主), providing the people with a vast cultural stage, letting all wellsprings of cultural creativity spring forth to their fullest — creating a new situation in which there is a sustained outflow of cultural creative vitality among all the people, in which the cultural life of society is richer and more diverse, in which the people’s basic cultural rights and interests are better protected, in which there is a comprehensive improvement in the ideological and ethical, scientific and cultural character of the people, and in which the international influence of Chinese culture steadily increases.

That is fecund language indeed. Flowers blooming. Thoughts contending. Climaxes of socialist culture followed by fulsome releases of productivity.
But the fine print reminds us that this burst, this renaissance, is supposed to happen under an atmosphere of control. A hundred flowers will blossom? Perhaps. But what kind of flowers, and under what restrictions?
The second half of the first underlined portion above is a reference to the Three Closenesses, a media policy introduced at the outset of the Hu Jintao era. The basic idea of the Three Closenesses — closeness to reality, life and the masses — is that media should become more palatable and relevant, partly in order that they become more salable in an era of rapid commercial development.
But listen to how Li Changchun characterized the Three Closenesses quite early on, in September 2003, as he addressed a gathering of top editors from Party-run media:

Li Changchun emphasized that correct guidance of public opinion is the life of news and propaganda work, and closeness to reality, closeness to life and closeness to the people reflect the basic demands of maintaining correct guidance of public opinion. Using the important ideology of the “Three Represents” to lead news and propaganda work, [we] must earnestly carry out the principal of “Three Closenesses,” bringing the will of the Party and the reflection of the aspirations of the people together as one . . .

The Three Closenesses in fact represents a latter-day makeover of the idea still central to the Party’s policy on media and culture, “guidance of public opinion,” which is synonymous with control. The crux, then, is that media and culture can thrive — so long as they do so in a garden under the Party’s stewardship.
Only once has “guidance of public opinion” ever appeared in a political report, and that was in Jiang Zemin’s report to the 15th National Congress in 1997. But make no mistake; the idea of “guidance,” the Party’s control of media and culture in order to maintain social and political stability, remains core. Hints of it can be seen, in fact, on page 37 of this year’s political report, which says,

[We must] enhance and improve online content construction, singing loudly the online main theme (网上主旋律). [We must] strengthen online social management (加强网络社会管理), promoting the regulated and orderly operation of the internet.

The “main theme” is typical Party language, a reference to the Party’s ideological line, and to the need for everyone to stay in line.
The idea of “online social management” should prick our ears up. This sounds very much like a mega-merger of social media controls and social management, the latter typically associated with the Central Politics and Law Commission (formerly run by Zhou Yongkang) and the policy of “stability preservation.”
This new phrase is one to watch closely. The earliest reference I can find to the phrase is a Guangzhou Daily article from February 2008 discussing the Edison Chen sex-photo scandal. But the phrase has been used specifically in a domestic security and social management context only since about March 2012.
On May 12, 2012, Chen Xunqiu (陈训秋), deputy secretary of the Central Politics and Law Commission, toured Shandong province, where his business was reportedly to research “work innovation in social management.”

He said [we must] place the innovation of social management in the same position of importance as economic development . . . working to break through systemic obstacles in social management, arriving at effective methods based on experience that can be rolled out in the areas of migrant population management, online social management and basic social services.

Repeat: keep an eye on this one.
Readers may also have noticed that I underlined the terms academic democracy (学术民主) and artistic democracy (艺术民主) in the translated passage from page 34 of Hu Jintao’s political report. Again, that sounds like promising language — until you put it into context.
These two terms are making their political report debuts too this year. But they are not new terms. They date back to at least the 1980s. This more liberal piece published in the Party’s Study Times points a finger at those who fail to recognize the important role of academic freedom and instead want to talk about “academic democracy”: “There are some who still do not have an accurate understanding of why academic freedom must be maintained in academic research, and there are even those who are apprehensive about academic freedom.”
And then we have Hu Jintao speaking in November 2006 about “giving full play to academic democracy and artistic democracy.” Let’s listen in:

[We must] fully carry out the Party’s policies on literature and the arts, giving full play to artistic democracy and academic democracy, adhering to the unity of social responsibility and creative freedom . . . constantly understanding and grasping the rules of literature and the arts, respecting the creative work of cultural workers, leading literature and the arts in a way suited to its rules.

I don’t need to draw the hand of political imposition for you. Its dirty fingerprints are all over that passage. The point being that these phrases, “academic democracy” and “artistic democracy,” speak to the same idea of restricted license that we see in ideas like the Three Closenesses, and in fact in current Party policy on media and culture more generally.


[ABOVE: In this cartoon, artist Kuang Biao depicts a self-ensnared China trying in vain to take off on wings of laurel. Could this image also sum up the tension between China’s cultural ambitions and its cultural controls?]
We cannot promise you artistic freedom. But we’ll let you work in the corner while we keep our eyes on you and remind you of your obligations. We can’t give you academic freedom. Our universities don’t work that way. But we can set some parameters — that’s what we’re best at — and let you rattle around freely within those confines.
As I had my head buried in Hu Jintao’s political report yesterday, I was suddenly recalled to the present with a phone call from a close friend, a Chinese film director. He let out a deep sigh before filling me in on his latest feature project. His rough treatment, which had cost several months of labor (and a decent stash of hard-won pre-production money), was still being held up at the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television.
Everything had come to a standstill for the 18th National Congress, and it would be at least a few more weeks before the censors came back, hopefully with their thumbs up. The director had to have SARFT’s preliminary approval before the process of finding investors could begin in earnest.
Until then he could only sit on his hands, watching “artistic democracy” in action.

WSJ Weibo post on corruption deleted

The following post by the official Weibo account of the Chinese website of the Wall Street Journal (华尔街日报中文网) was deleted from Sina Weibo sometime before 3:39 a.m. today, November 14, 2012. The post takes readers to an article by Liu Gang (刘罡) about how China should deal with the problem of endemic corruption. [More on deleted posts at the WeiboScope Search, by the Journalism and Media Studies Centre].

[Newspaper Reading: How Should China Deal with the Scourge of Corruption?] At the 18th National Congress of the CCP, corruption has become a very hot issue. How should China deal with corruption that is now rife from top to bottom? Author: Liu Gang http://t.cn/zjzU7xG

The original Chinese-language post follows:

【读报:中共如何应对腐败沉疴?】- 腐败问题在中共十八大会议上成为十分热门的话题,对于已经从上到下渗透到整个中国社会的腐败现象,中国该怎么办?作者:刘罡 http://t.cn/zjzU7xG


NOTE: All posts to The Anti-Social List are listed as “permission denied” in the Sina Weibo API, which means they were deleted by Weibo managers, not by users themselves.

China's Trapped Transition


As the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party was held in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People from November 8-15, 2012, controls on information tightened across the board in China, and there were reports of violent suppression of dissidents and rights defenders — a stark contrast to the triumphal tone of the meetings. In the following cartoon, posted by artist Kuang Biao (邝飚) to Sina Weibo, China is portrayed as a faceless, bruised and bloody figure wrapped in barbed wire as it tries hopelessly to take off into the air on wings fashioned from laurel branches (symbolizing triumph through inner struggle).

PSC surmises deleted from Weibo

The following post by Liu Huafang (柳华芳), an e-commerce expert based in Beijing, was deleted from Sina Weibo sometime before 7:52 a.m. today, November 14, 2012. The post tabulates the various guesses by foreign media about which of nine possible candidates will make the final lineup of China’s new Politburo Standing Committee, which will be unveiled tomorrow. Liu Huafang currently has just under 32,000 followers, according to numbers from Sina Weibo. [More on deleted posts at the WeiboScope Search, by the Journalism and Media Studies Centre].

Interesting.


The original Chinese-language post follows:

有意思.


NOTE: All posts to The Anti-Social List are listed as “permission denied” in the Sina Weibo API, which means they were deleted by Weibo managers, not by users themselves.

More deleted speculation about the Party's PSC

The following post by veteran journalist Ding Buzhi (丁补之) was deleted from Sina Weibo sometime before 8:07 p.m. yesterday, November 11, 2012. The post shared speculation from international media about the new lineup of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which has not yet been formally announced. [More on deleted posts at the WeiboScope Search, by the Journalism and Media Studies Centre].

The personnel decisions and propaganda work of the Party can somehow admit the tongues of the hostile forces [of the West] . . . The attached image comes from the web. Our Party congress is not yet completed, but perhaps we can have a small discussion of state affairs. I provide this only so we can engage in a bit of commentary.

Here is the image attached to the post, which includes a translation of international media coverage of the leadership succession. At the top of the image the Politburo Standing Committee is listed out as follows: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Gaoli, Wang Zhishan.


The original Chinese-language post follows:

D的人事和宣传工作岂能容敌对势力插舌。。。附图内容源自网络,我大会未毕,屑小妄议天朝国事,仅供批判讨伐使用。


NOTE: All posts to The Anti-Social List are listed as “permission denied” in the Sina Weibo API, which means they were deleted by Weibo managers, not by users themselves.

Political Eggheads


Ahead of the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which opened yesterday in Beijing, a number of political cartoonists posted subtle visual critiques through Chinese social media. In this cartoon, posted by artist Kuang Biao (邝飚), we see an egg-shaped head with a queue, or braid, like that worn during the Qing Dynasty, symbolizing feudal backwardness. The subtle link to China’s present-day politics is made by the red tie at the end of the braid. The translation of Kuang Biao’s Chinese post would be something like: “Piss off, you bastard.” In Chinese, however, both words (“piss off”/混蛋 and “bastard”/滚蛋) include the character for “egg.”

Deleted Weibo highlights bored Jiang Zemin

The following post by Shenzhen Hot Topics (深圳热点), a user with more than 123,000 followers, was deleted from Sina Weibo sometime before 2:44 p.m. today, November 8, 2012 (within 25 minutes of being posted). The post includes a group of photos it attributes to Reuters showing former Chinese President Jiang Zemin making various faces during the 18th National Congress today. [More on deleted posts at the WeiboScope Search, by the Journalism and Media Studies Centre].

Those Reuters editors are too funny . . .


The original Chinese-language post follows:

路透的编辑太幽默了……(转)@焦点联播 @杂谈五味


NOTE: All posts to The Anti-Social List are listed as “permission denied” in the Sina Weibo API, which means they were deleted by Weibo managers, not by users themselves.

Party report suggests old guard is strong

Ahead of the 18th National Congress, which opened in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People today, I focused on 10 important terms in the Party’s political lexicon in my WATCHWORDS series (English and Chinese). Those terms were:

1. The “Four Basic Principles,” including Mao Zedong Thought (四项基本原则/毛泽东思想)
2. “Stability preservation” (维稳)
3. “Political reform” (政治体制改革)
4. “Cultural Revolution” (文革)
5. “Power is given by the people” (权为民所赋)
6. “Power of decision-making, power of administration and power of monitoring” (决策权,执行权,监督权)
7. “Intraparty democracy” (党内民主)
8. “Social construction” (社会建设)
9. “Scientific view of development” (科学发展观)
10. “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” (中国特色社会主义).

In the series, I looked at the origins of these political watchwords, their development through time (as seen in Chinese media and in past political reports), and explained how they can give us clues to how the Party is thinking or trending on various critical issues.


I have not yet had time to go carefully through the entire 64-page report delivered by President Hu Jintao earlier today, but I have studied a number of the key points. Here is the situation in Hu’s political report to the 18th National Congress with respect to the 10 terms I focused on in my series.
1. The “Four Basic Principles” (including “Mao Zedong Thought”). I have said before that this term, as a banner for the Maoist left in China, can be seen as a strong political indicator. In my series, I said that if both of these terms were abandoned, this would signify the leadership’s intention to push ahead with political reforms. But if the phrase Four Basic Principles is used to the extent that we saw in 2007, or its frequency is reduced only slightly, this signals a perpetuation of the status quo, with no substantive progress on political reform. Any increase in the frequency of use of either term would suggest a political turnabout.
In this political report, both the “Four Basic Principles” and “Mao Zedong Thought” continue to appear.
2. “stability preservation”. As I pointed out in my series, the appearance of this term in the political report to the 18th National Congress would mark a serious turnabout for China politically.
In this political report, the term “stability preservation” does not appear in the main points (要点).
3. “Cultural Revolution”. We want to look for any signs of soul-searching about the Cultural Revolution in the political report, which would be a positive sign pointing to possible political reform. This would mean emphasis of the term, but not simply in the context of praise for China’s progress (which would not be significant).
In the main topics of this political report, “Cultural Revolution” does not appear, in either its full or shortened forms (文革/文化大革命).
4. “Political reform”. As I pointed out, a positive sign would be the appearance of this term in a section header (章节标题) of the political report. The term did appear in a section header in every political report from the 13th National Congress to the 16th National Congress, but this did not happen in Hu Jintao’s 2007 political report. We also want to look at the term’s frequency — has it gone up? And have related negative signals gone down in frequency? The appearance of the phrase “protecting rights, checking power” would be a positive sign. The appearance, on the other hand, of hard-line language such as “opposing Westernization” or the “Five Will Nots” would be a negative sign.
In this political report, “political reform” is written into a section header. The header of the fifth section is: “Continuing on the Political Development Road of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting Political Reform” (坚持走中国特色社会主义政治发展道路和推进政治体制改革). I will look later at the frequency of use of the term “political reform” in the report. We do not see terms in the report like “opposing Westernization” or the “Five Will Nots”. But we do see the appearance of “[we will] resolutely not follow Western political systems” (绝不照搬西方政治制度模式), which did not appear in the 2007 political report. We also see a new term: “[We will] not take the wicked [or “heretical”] way of changing our banner” (不走改旗易帜邪路).
5. “Intraparty power separation” or the “Power of Decision-Making, Power of Administration and Power of Monitoring”. I said before that full 2007 phrase to look for in this report was: “[The Party] must build and improve power structures for mutual conditioning and mutual coordination of the powers of decision-making, administration and monitoring, improving oversight mechanisms” (要建立健全决策权、执行权、监督权既相互制约又相互协调的权力结构,完善监督机制). If we did not see this phrase repeated in this year’s political report, I said, this would be a negative sign. On the other hand, if the phrase was altered to include the idea of these powers operating independently of one another, this would be a positive sign.
In this political report, the 2007 does appear, but there is no further language to suggest powers operating independently of one another.
6. “Power is given by the people”. As I explained in my fifth article in the series, Xi Jinping introduced this phrase after the 17th National Congress. I argued that any appearance of this term at all in this year’s political report would be a positive sign.
In this political report, the term does not appear.
7. “social construction”. I noted in my series that the critical thing to watch was whether the phrase “expanding the scope for self-governance at the grassroots,” which appeared in 2007, reappeared in this year’s report. If it disappears (and is not replaced by “social self-governance”) that would be a negative sign, I argued.
In this political report, the term does disappear, and it is not replaced by “social self-governance.” The term used instead is “self-governance according to the law” (依法自治), and this appears in the following context: “. . . improving [our] mechanisms for strategy and work on national security, remaining highly vigilant against and resolutely on guard against separatism, infiltration and subversive activities by hostile forces, ensuring national security.” This is a term from the politics and law committee to talk about “social management,” and marks a very hardline position.
8. “Intraparty democracy”. This term appeared five times in the political report to the 17th National Congress, a relatively high frequency. As I wrote before, we want to look at how often this term appears in this year’s political report as well as at whether or not it is accompanied by language about more concrete measures, such as “open nomination and direct election,” “differential election” and “fixed tenure.”
Judging from the main points (要点) of this year’s report, it seems that “intraparty democracy” appears less frequently than in the report to the 17th National Congress. There is no mention of “open nomination and direct election,” and as for “differential election” and “fixed tenure” no concrete measures are raised.
9. Scientific View of Development”. The term, President Hu Jintao’s “banner term,” or qihao, appeared 21 times in the 2007 political report. I said in my series that if the term appears the same number of times or marginally less often in this year’s report, this will be normal. Appearance with greater frequency, however, would signal that Hu intends to extend the influence of his banner term beyond the 18th National Congress. Also worth looking at is whether the meaning of the Scientific View of Development changes in any way in the political report. Is there any stress, for example, on “people-based” governance? Is there mention of civil and political rights along the lines of what we saw in China’s National Human Rights Action Plan (2012-2015)? Any changes like this to the content of Scientific View of Development would be positive.
In this political report, the Scientific View of Development makes a strong showing. Most importantly, this term’s rank has been elevated. Along with “Deng Xiaoping Theory” and the “Three Represents,” it has become a guiding ideology (指导思想) of the Party. There is no mention at all in the political report of the term “civil rights.”.
10. “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. In my analysis of the political report five years ago, I found that this watchword appeared 51 times. A hypothesized on the basis of Hu Jintao’s speech on July 23, 2012, that this watchword, actually a changing medley of political terms, would at this year’s congress become a term representing the banner terms for the last three generations of Chinese leaders — Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. As I pointed out in my series, it is important to look at how socialism with Chinese characteristics is defined in this year’s political report. Specifically, does the term still include the “Four Basic Principles” or “one core, two basic points” (一个中心, 两个基本点) — this second term being a phrase that includes the “Four Basic Principles.” If socialism with Chinese characteristics continues to includes these ideas, I said, that could be read as a discouraging sign.
This year’s political report does show us that “socialism with Chinese characteristics” has indeed become a common banner term including three generations of leaders — Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Moreover, the Four Basic Principles is still included in the definition of the phrase.
My preliminary conclusion: conservative forces within the Party are still very powerful. According to the line marked out by the political report to the 18th National Congress, there is very little prospect that substantive moves will be made on political reform.
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10个“提法”在18大的表现
18大召开前,笔者曾在CMP网站和纽约时报中文网撰文,分析了中共的10个关键词语:1,“四项基本原则”(含毛泽东思想);2, “维稳”;3, “政治体制改革”;4, “文革”;5, “权为民所赋”;6, “决策权,执行权,监督权”;7, “党内民主”;8, “社会建设”;9, “科学发展观”;10, “中国特色社会主义”;比较它们在历次党代大会、特别是文革后7次党代大会政治报告中的表现;分析17大以来5年间这些提法在党报和其他媒体传播中的最新变化;试图通过话语体系,对18大后的政治走向作模式识别。
18大现已召开,胡锦涛已做报告(虽未念全文,只讲了“要点”)。笔者根据收看电视直播的记录,整理出上述10个关键词语在18大报告中的表现如下:
1,“四项基本原则”(包括“毛泽东思想”)。笔者曾说,这个提法,具有极大的政治风向标意义(它们是毛左的旗帜),如两者均被弃用,说明政改号角吹响。如任何一个的出现频率与17大同,或虽然减少依然存在,意味政治发展止步不前。出现频率若再增加,是严重的政治退步信号。
18大报告要点中,“四项基本原则”和“毛泽东思想”均出现了。
2,“维稳”。笔者曾指出,这个烈性口号如在18大被启用,是严重的政治退步信号。
18大报告的要点中,这个词没有出现。
3,“文革”。笔者曾指,2012年,在薄熙来案发后,这个提法的重新启用有特别意义。如果18大报告中出现对文革的反思,是政治改革的积极信号。如果仅在颂扬改革开放历史背景时被一笔带过,意义不大。
18大报告的要点,没有涉及“文革”或“文化大革命”。
4,“政治体制改革”。笔者此前的文章指出,与17大报告比较,正面信号是这一提法被写入报告的章节标题(从13大到16大都写入了章节标题,但17大没有),或出现频率增加,负面信号是频率继续下降。“制约权力,保障权利”这个八字口号如出现,是正面信号。反对政改的“强硬派表述”:如“反对西化、分化”或“五不搞”出现,是负面信号。
18大报告,将“政治体制改革”写入了章节标题,其第五部分的标题是“坚持走中国特色社会主义政治发展道路和推进政治体制改革”,出现频率待统计。“制约权力,保障权利”的八字口号未出现。“反对西化、分化”或“五不搞”也没有出现。但出现了一个新提法:“不走改旗易帜邪路”。
5,“党内三权”(“决策权、执行权、监督权”)。笔者此前的文章认为,观察的关键,是“要建立健全决策权、执行权、监督权既相互制约又相互协调的权力结构,完善监督机制”这段17大报告中已有的话,是否继续出现?“党内三权”的提法如果被弃用,是负面信号。如果具体阐述中增加了三权各自独立运行的含义,是正面信号。
18大,这个提法出现了,但没有增加“各自独立运行”的含义。
6,“权为民所赋”。这是17大后习近平的新提法。笔者认为,在18大政治报告中只要出现,是积极信号。
18大,这个口号没有出现。
7,“社会建设”。笔者曾指,观察的关键,是“扩大基层群众自治范围”这个17大报告已有的提法。这个提法如消失(也并未代之以“社会自治”),是负面信息。
18大报告的要点中,这个提法消失,也没有代之以“社会自治”,而是用“依法自治”。相关段落中还称“完善国家安全战略和工作机制,高度警惕和坚决防范敌对势力的分裂、渗透、颠覆活动,确保国家安全”——这是政法委对“社会管理”的提法。
8,“党内民主”。笔者曾说,这个提法,17大报告的出现频率高,观察18大,频率的变化仍然值得注意,重点是政治报告是否对“公推直选”、“差额选举”等选举制度改革和“党代表常任制”提出明确的推进举措。
收看胡锦涛18大报告“要点”,感觉“党内民主”的出现频率不如17大。他没有提到“差额选举”、“公推直选”、“党代表常任制”。
9,“科学发展观”。笔者曾分析,这一提法在17大报告中出现21次。18大报告中,如果其频率相同或略微下降,是正常的。如果大幅上升,则反应胡在18大后还将延伸其影响力。值得观察的,是18大对“科学发展观”是否有新的定义,如果比此前更强调“以人为本”,使用了《国家人权行动计划(2012-2015年)》中关于公民权利和政治权利的表述,是正面信息。
18大报告,对“科学发展观”浓墨重抹。最重要的是,该提法级别提升,已和“邓小平理论”、“三个代表”并列,成为党的指导思想。在收看直播时,似乎没有听见“人权”、“公民权利”。
10,“中国特色社会主义”。笔者曾分析:这一提法在17大政治报告中出现51次。从18前胡锦涛“7.23”讲话透露的信息看,它将成为邓、江、胡的共用旗号,所以18大它的出现频率一定居高。这个提法居高,是政治力量平衡的产物,未必是政治发展的正面信息。值得观察的,是18大对“中国特色社会主义”的定义,要看18大的定义中,是否还包括“四项基本原则”或“一个中心,两个基本点”(此提法包含了“四项基本原则”)。如果依然包括,说明前景不乐观。
18大可以证实,“中国特色社会主义”将成为邓、江、胡共同旗号。在其定义中,依然有“四项基本原则”。
初步结论: 保守势力依然强大,按照18大报告所确定的路线,中国政治体制改革难有实质推进。